2021 BMW Championship Betting Preview

2021 BMW Championship Betting Preview

Alex Grandjacquet

Tourney / Course Overview

We are down to the final 70 players this week at the BMW Championship from Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland. Only 69 will be teeing it up as Patrick Reed has withdrawn for the second consecutive week as he battles double pneumonia. 

Other than winning or placing inside of the top three this week, it will be quite difficult for those placed on the outside of the top 30 to get enough points to qualify into next week’s season-ending TOUR Championship, so expect those near the bottom of the standings to come out firing early here. There is no cut in this four-day event, so keep that in mind if you are playing DFS.

The site of this year’s tournament offers us a 7,542-yard Par 72 Tom Fazio layout that has been remodeled over the past 18 months. As is the popular trend in the industry, they have added a bunch of length to the course in addition to more bunkers and thicker rough. There is no course history to go off here, but I would expect this might be a track that yields a winner closer to 5 under-par than the regular double-digit under-par winners we have been accustomed to seeing.

The Picks

A strategy I will not talk anyone out of for this week and/or next week as we get down to the best of the best is to pick your horse from the top of the board and go with him. Even at +650, it is tough not to back Jon Rahm with the way he is playing, but I will offer a few names further down the board this week that offer some value.

Although it was on a different course, Joaquin Niemann (+5000) was one of only five golfers to finish under par over the four rounds at last year’s BMW Championship. On a course that seems as it will play just as difficult, Niemann can take advantage of his length (12th this season in Driving Distance) and improved putting (22nd on Tour this season up from 146th last season) to contend and take down the title. I also like his Top 5 prop at 9/1 and to be the First Round Leader at 42/1.

We are getting to the point where Brooks Koepka’s (+2500) odds are getting slightly higher than they should be for a tournament of this magnitude and where he hasn’t won in a while. We capitalized on his insane 50/1 number back in February at the Waste Management, and this elite field tournament should capture BK’s full attention and focus. Another one who will benefit from distance, lock and load this ticket with confidence.

They say never bet a show pony to win, but Louis Oosthuizen (+2500) is playing too well this season to pass up at this price. Arguably the TOUR’s best player this season, not named Morikawa or Rahm, Louis heads in after two weeks off with a clear mind, ready to tackle his runner-up demons and get the job done. His game works and fits at any course, and it is only a matter of time before he steps back into the winner’s circle. After missing out on Finau finally getting the job done last week, I will not do the same with the sweet-swinging South African.

The Card 

Joaquin Niemann First Round Leader (+4200)

Joaquin Niemann Top 5 (+800)

Joaquin Niemann Outright (+5000)

Brooks Koepka Outright (+2500)

Louis Oosthuizen Top 5 (+450)

Louis Oosthuizen Outright (+2500)

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!