Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 5 Prediction & Picks

Zachary Cook

The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics best-of-seven series is all even at two, with Game 5 set to shift back to South Beach to put one team on the brink. Boston picked up a blowout victory in Game 4 of the series at home by a score of 102-82 behind a game-high 31 points from Jayson Tatum, while Victor Oladipo dropped 23 for Miami.

Marcus Smart and Robert Williams are both listed as questionable for the Celtics tonight, while P.J. Tucker, Gabe Vincent, and Tyler Herro are all questionable for Miami as well.

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat NBA Game Information

Boston Celtics (10-5) | Miami Heat (10-5)

Date: 05/25/2022 | Time: 08:30 PM

Location: Miami, Florida | Venue: FTX Arena

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Spread Open: Celtics -1| Current: Celtics -2

Game Total Open: 203.5 | Current: 204

Moneyline Open: Celtics -115/ Heat -105 | Current: Celtics -130/ Heat +110

All NBA betting lines, odds, and props are courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Boston Celtics +260

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Miami Heat +440

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Analysis

This series has done a good job of representing what we’ve seen in the NBA Playoffs so far, which is not a lot in terms of close games. The smallest win margin we’ve seen is six points and both Celtics victories were by 20 or more points, while there have been just four lead changes through four games. Neither team shot well in Game 4 despite the Celtics winning by 20, as the Heat’s 33.3 percentage from the floor made Boston’s 39.7% look stellar. Not having Tyler Herro in Game 4 was certainly a key loss for the offensive-needy Heat and with his status uncertain for tonight, that’s going to be something to keep an eye on as we approach game time. The two teams have alternated wins in this series, which is now a best-of-three with Miami having home court.

The SportsGrid betting model likes the road team Celtics to snap the streak of winning every other game tonight, giving them a 61.09% win probability combined with a 3.5-star rating on the moneyline. Looking at the spread, the Celtics are currently listed as two-point road favorites in Miami tonight, which the model gives the Celtics a 2.5-star rating to cover. The status of some of the players in question could impact which side you look towards. With that being said, the Celtics looked to have taken over the series in Game 4, and if they show up with a similar type of effort tonight on the road, there’s no reason they can’t head back to Boston with a chance to close this series out.

Looking at the total tonight, this is where the model has its biggest lean for this Game 5. The line for this game is currently set at 204 and the model gives a five-star rating to the over tonight. So far in this series, we’ve seen point totals of 225, 229, 212, and 184, meaning three of the four games would have gone over tonight’s number. The teams have certainly played much better defensively over the last two games, but the number still seems low and you can expect a bounce-back offensive performance from both sides in tonight’s Game 5.