FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 10/16/21

As always, we’re covering FanDuel‘s main slate, and that kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

Slate Overview

Leeds (+190) at Southampton (+135)
Over 2.5 Goals: -138 | Most Likely to Score: Bamford (+160)

Brighton (+110) at Norwich (+260)
Over 2.5 Goals: +112 | Most Likely to Score: Maupay (+170)

Wolves (+240) at Aston Villa (+120)
Over 2.5 Goals: +108 | Most Likely to Score: Ings (+130)

Burnley (+2100) at Manchester City (-850)
Over 2.5 Goals: -245 | Most Likely to Score: Jesus (-110)

Manchester United (+110) at Leicester (+240)
Over 2.5 Goals: -136 | Most Likely to Score: Ronaldo (+110)

Chelsea (-170) at Brentford (+550)
Over 2.5 Goals: -102 | Most Likely to Score: Lukaku (-115)

Positional Breakdown


This slate centers on Manchester City, who are huge home favorites versus Burnley. City are -850 to win and -550 to score at least two goals — both of which are slate-best marks by a wide margin. City are -160 to score at least three times, and that’s better than any other side’s odds of scoring two-plus goals.

You’ll obviously want exposure to City, and given the makeup of the rest of the slate, I think you can justify using three City attackers if you want.

As is usually the case with Pep Guardiola’s bunch when they’re a colossal favorite, City have a slew of guys with appealing goal odds, as they boast nine players who are at least +195 to score. Ferran Torres ($17; -110) leads the way in goal odds among City’s available players and is easy to love at his salary. Kevin De Bruyne ($21; +160) has solid goal odds to go along with his elite ability to create chances. Coming off an international break, City’s starting XI will be tough to predict, but anyone in an attacking spot for them has to be on our radar.

After City, the next biggest favorite is Chelsea. The Blues are -170 to win at Brentford, but the match is only -102 to go over 2.5 goals. With Brentford proving to be a solid EPL outfit, Chelsea isn’t a side I’ll stack in this spot.

Romelu Lukaku ($22; -115) has the best goal odds on the slate, and with fellow high-salaried star Cristiano Ronaldo ($23; +110) in a difficult matchup at Leicester, that should push even more people to Lukaku. That makes me want to pivot to Kai Havertz ($17; +185) or Timo Werner ($19; +185) if they’re in the lineup. You can fade Chelsea altogether if you want, which is a way to be different while still loading up on City. Brentford are the league’s fourth-best defense thus far by expected goals, per FBRef.

The Southampton-Leeds match is a great one to target, and per usual with Leeds’ fixtures, both sides are appealing. The match is -138 to go over 2.5 goals, the top odds outside of the City matchup.

The Saints are slim +135 favorites, and they are -105 to score at least twice. Adam Armstrong ($17; +180) has the best goal odds on Southampton, but the more appealing route might be using them for a salary-saving option — someone like Nathan Redmond ($14; +380) or Mohamed Elyounoussi ($15; +340) — to help get to the City and Chelsea players we want. If Shane Long ($9; +230) or Theo Walcott ($9; +240) start, they’d be very enticing at their salaries.

On the Leeds side, Raphinha won’t play after suiting up for Brazil on Thursday, and Patrick Bamford is still out with an ankle injury. Leeds could give us a value option or two — possibly Tyler Roberts ($6; +320) — depending on how they line up. Rodrigo ($17; +260) and Dan James ($15; +320) have the top goal odds among Leeds’ projected starters.

Lastly, let’s touch on Manchester United. I’m having a hard time figuring out how popular they’ll be. The matchup at Leicester is tough, although the Foxes aren’t playing very well this campaign. But the Red Devils aren’t in good form, either. I’m tempted to mostly stay away from this clash, but at the same time, there’s a lot of attacking talent on United, so if they’re going to fly under the radar, we should be interested.

Ronaldo probably won’t be as popular as Lukaku or maybe KDB, and he’s, you know, Ronaldo. He’s +110 to score. Bruno Fernandes ($21; +165) has some more appealing players salaried around him and could be the ideal contrarian pick if United are on the ball a lot.

Added time — Aston Villa are +120 to win versus Wolves. Whenever they’re in a good spot, Danny Ings ($17; +130) is worth a gander. The salary isn’t too bad, and the goal odds are pretty good for this slate. … Brighton draws the dream date with Norwich. I’m very interested in taking a shot on Neal Maupay ($18; +170) or punting with a low-salary Adam Lallana ($7; +490).


City’s full-backs should have plenty of chances to get forward. The question is who those full-backs will be.

Joao Cancelo ($14) will be an elite option if he’s in there. A year ago, he spent a lot of time operating more centrally as basically an attacking midfielder in these games in which City faced a low block, which is what they’ll go up against versus Burnley. He’s +500 to score, a pretty dope clip for a defender. If Oleksandr Zinchenko ($7) starts for City, he would be an amazing option. He’s priced at +230 to score and is $7. Yes, please.

On the other side of that game, Burnley’s defenders offer good floors, and that’s something I’m interested in as long as I don’t have to sacrifice too much salary to get it. Nathan Collins ($7) and Charlie Taylor ($9) are listed as probable starters. Collins should be at center-back and is a guy I’ll be overweight on.

One of Chelsea’s Marcos Alonso ($15) or Ben Chilwell ($13) figures to start at left-back, and either makes for a mighty fine play. Alonso has been the primary starter and is averaging 23.5 FanDuel points per game. Chilwell got the nod last time out and went nuclear, scoring a goal while putting three shots on target en route to 41.6 FanDuel points.

Added time — Leeds’ style makes their defenders quality DFS options, and Pascal Struijk ($6) is a fantastic salary-saving pick. He has at least 10.4 FanDuel points in all three of his full matches. The cap relief he offers is super handy. … Brighton’s Joel Veltman has been a solid producer this year. He’s posted at least 9.3 FanDuel points in every match, tallying one assist. He can do some damage in a soft matchup with the Canaries.


A key decision on this slate is what you want to do with City keeper Zack Steffen ($5), who is starting in place of Ederson.

I would have a lot of interest in Ederson in this spot at his $13 salary, so I’m going to go ahead and use Steffen. Is Steffen as good as Ederson? No. But he’s $5 and may not have to make a save. City are -850 to win and -148 to keep a clean sheet — both of which are slate-best marks by a good distance. And even if Steffen concedes and ends up relying on the win bonus for most (or all) of his fantasy production, I’m good with that at his salary since he gives me so much freedom with the rest of my lineup.

I am assuming Steffen will be chalky as heck, so using anyone else as your keeper — especially a high-salary goalie — is a way to gain some leverage. Enter Edouard Mendy ($12). Chelsea are -170 to win and +106 to blank the Bees. We know what kind of defensive machine the Blues can be when they’re right.

Emiliano Martinez ($10) is in a decent spot at home against a Wolves side that is pretty meh in attack. Villa are +180 to keep a clean sheet and +120 to win. The worry with Martinez is that he likely won’t be at 100% after playing for Argentina (in Argentina) Thursday night. They should probably do something about the South American World Cup qualifying schedule, huh?

Added time — Robert Sanchez ($10) is +162 to keep a clean sheet and +110 to win at Norwich. He might be my favorite play if it weren’t for Steffen starting. … Kasper Schmeichel ($8) is a bet-on-talent pick at an easy-to-like salary, and he’ll surely go overlooked due to the matchup with United and the popularity of Steffen. There are paths to a ceiling game for Schmeichel. He will see save volume, and United haven’t scored in two of their last four matches in all competitions.