MLB DFS: Giants, Pirates Top Leverage Stacks for Wednesday
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STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top 6 projected hitters. Team cost is the average price of that team’s top six optimal probability players.
Team stacks seeing the most leverage: Giants, Pirates
The San Francisco Giants’ stack is expected to see some pretty sweet leverage tonight as they go up against Merrill Kelly and the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Giants have not been too great at the plate recently. Over the past two weeks, they rank in the bottom seven in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while striking out at the sixth-highest rate in baseball. We know the Giants are a much better team than that, as they rank in the top half in baseball in those same categories for the season. San Francisco clearly is not a top-caliber offense, but there is more in the tank there.
Their opponent in Merrill Kelly is a serviceable arm who will not blow stuff by the Giants but also has good enough composure to not get shelled. He doesn’t have great strikeout numbers as his K% sits below 20%, but he limits power really well and is in the top 10 among qualified pitchers in allowed HR/9.
This is a tough matchup to project, but our computer views it very favorably for the Giants, given their high percentage on the optimal board, so grabbing the leverage with them appears to be the clever play.
The Pittsburgh Pirates took down the MLB’s best team in the New York Yankees last night in dramatic fashion, but what are the chances the Pirates can pull it off in back-to-back nights?
Pittsburgh is really not a great team at all, but they have been swinging the bats well by Pirates standards, with the fourth-highest ISO in baseball over the past two weeks. They’ll have no choice but to rely on that power production that has given them such a strong ISO position if they want to take two from the Yankees.
They will be opposed by Luis Severino, who can be vulnerable to power at times but has an overall body of work that has been very solid this season with strong strikeout production at roughly 29% along with solid xERA and xFIP marks to complement.
The Pirates stack is the cheapest on the slate and is expected to be minimally owned, but taking down the Yankees-loaded pitching staff on consecutive nights is an uphill battle. Given the leverage and affordability, this will be a low-risk stack to insert into your lineups, but this is a David vs. Goliath matchup at the end of the day.