New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies, Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: Mets +112|Phillies -132

Spread: Mets +1.5 (-164)|Phillies -1.5 (+136)

Total: 7.5 Over -112| Under -110

Odds to Win the World Series: Mets +13000|Phillies +8500

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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies News, Analysis, and Pick

The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies kick off a crucial three-game series in Queens tonight, as both teams cling to dimming playoff aspirations. The Phillies have the advantage in the standings, 2.5 games up on the Mets, but which team has the advantage heading into tonight’s contest?

Taijuan Walker has benefitted from starting in his pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field. The nine-year veteran allows just 1.07 walks and hits per inning pitched for a 3.55 earned run average at home this season. Walker strikes out 9.15 per nine innings at home and walks 2.86, both of which are better than his respective road metrics of 7.77 and 3.41.

Philadelphia has been having a hard time scoring runs recently, cashing four or fewer in six of their past nine games, losing all six of those contests. We see a similar trend across Philadelphia’s recent road games, as they’ve been limited to four or fewer runs in five of their past six as the visitors. Limited run production on the road has resulted in a 32-40 away record for the Phillies.

The bigger issue, though, has been pitching. The Phillies rank 23rd in the MLB over the past 15 days with a 5.37 earned run average. There’s a growing disconnect between run production and production metrics, implying that the Phillies should see their ERA regress back towards average. That could lead to some low-scoring games over the weekend, as the Phillies staff benefit from pitching at Citi Field.

The Mets need a strong outing from Walker, and he should deliver at home. The betting market is swinging in favor of the Phillies, creating an edge in backing the Mets and the under.

The Bet: Mets +112, Under 7.5 -110