UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Battle vs. Urbina

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

MW – Bryan Battle (0-0-0 UFC record) vs. MW – Gilbert Urbina (0-0-0 UFC record)

Date: Saturday, August 28

Time: 10:00 PM EDT

Venue: UFC Apex facility in Enterprise, Nevada

Broadcast Coverage: ESPN

Battle vs. Urbina Moneyline and Odds

Odds to Win: Battle -162 / Urbina +132

How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +290, Submission +240, Points -125

Total Rounds: Over 2.5 (-154) Under 2.5 (+120)

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!

Battle vs. Urbina News, Analysis, and Picks

The middleweight finals of The Return of The Ultimate Fighter: Team Volkanovski vs. Team Ortega features Bryan Battle vs. Gilbert Urbina. Neither fighter has shown excellent stopping power on the feet, but they’re both pretty competent on the mat. Urbina replaces Tresean Gore, who suffered a knee injury, and the fighter who eliminated Urbina from the tournament. However, Urbina matches up better against Battle than he did against Gore. 

On the feet, Battle fights in a southpaw stance, while Urbina comes in as an orthodox fighter. We haven’t seen the crispest striking from either fighter, but Battle seems to have a slight advantage standing up. I expect Urbina to look for a single leg, either off trapping a kick or via a shot, and he should look to take the back from there. However, Battle has shown he’s calm under pressure even when being controlled in bad positions. 

In my opinion, the longer the fight goes on, the more it’ll favor Battle. Battle eliminated Team Ortega’s top middleweight pick with his submission win over Andre Petroski in the semi-finals and did so with a slick guillotine. After being controlled in the grappling exchanges, Battle lost the first round vs. Petroski, but he persevered before locking in a guillotine in the second round. Contrary to that, Urbina controlled the grappling game in his quarter-final fight against Michael Gillmore. Urbina took Gillmore’s back early and didn’t let go until he locked in a rear-naked choke. However, looking through a few of Urbina’s fights, I can see that he usually gains back control from opponents turning away from him. It’s a glaring mistake from his previous opponents that I wouldn’t expect Battle to make.

On paper, it looks like an easy out for Battle, considering Urbina is parachuting into the finals, but I don’t think it’s that simple. The match-up appears more even because of their styles. I’m still leaning towards a Battle submission win. I expect the first round to feature a lot of feeling each other out on the feet, with a few clinches here and there. I think we’ll either see a late first-round or early second-round finish in this one. The second-round odds are much juicier, so I will roll the dice on Battle winning by submission in the second.

The Bets: Battle win -162, Under 2.5 Rounds (-154), Battle Submission & Round 2 (+1400), Fight Ends in Submission (+240)