UFC Orlando: Thompson vs. Holland

Tyler Mason

A welterweight bout headlines UFC Orlando as No. 6 Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson faces Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland.

Date: Saturday, December 3, 2022 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Amway Center – Orlando, Florida | TV: ESPN

Bam Bam and the Brazilian

Former UFC Lightweight Champion and seventh-ranked welterweight Rafael dos Anjos takes on Bryan “Bam Bam” Barberena. Barberena has made a recent habit of dispatching longtime UFC veterans, beating Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown in his previous two fights.

Meanwhile, dos Anjos had a promising start at welterweight, getting his hand raised against Tarec Saffiedine, Neil Magny, and Lawler, but ran into a wall at the top of the division. The Brazilian lost four of his next five fights at welterweight, dropping contests to Colby Covington, Kamaru Usman, Leon Edwards, and Michael Chiesa. However, it should be noted Covington, Usman, and Edwards represent the top three fighters in the division.

There is no doubt that dos Anjos is years away from his peak (now 38 years old), but there’s still gas in the tank. His knockout loss to Rafael Fiziev is a little worrying, but it’s another loss to a top fighter. Barberena is not at the same skill level as dos Anjos but is very durable.

What Barberena lacks in talent, he makes up for in determination. Bam Bam averages 0.49 knockdowns per 15 minutes to dos Anjos’s 0.19 and lands 2.53 more significant strikes per minute. However, he absorbs 1.78 more significant strikes per minute and will have a significant grappling deficit.

Dos Anjos will be giving up power and size, being four inches shorter. There’s no value in an outright bet with dos Anjos, but there is a good chance he finishes Barberena on the ground. Take dos Anjos by submission at +320.

Bam Bam and the Russian

No. 5 Sergei Pavlovich looks to move up the rankings against No. 4 Tai “Bam Bam” Tuivasa. Someone is going to get knocked out in this fight. Pavlovich is 16-1, with 13 knockouts, including four UFC knockouts in a row. Moreover, he was knocked out in his UFC debut by Alistair Overeem.

Three of Pavlovich’s last four knockouts were against UFC washouts, but in his previous fight, he KO’d Derrick Lewis in 55 seconds. Meanwhile, Tuivasa is 14-4, with 13 knockouts. He has five knockouts in his past six fights and also has a knockout of Lewis. Tuivasa is coming off a loss to the No. 1 ranked heavyweight Ciryl Gane.

Pavlovich is one inch taller but enjoys an enormous nine-inch reach advantage. The Russian lands 6.83 significant strikes per minute to Tuivasa’s 4.12, while they absorb a similar amount. Neither has registered a takedown or submission attempt, so it’s unlikely grappling comes into play.

The easy money is probably taking the fight to end by knockout, but at -550 odds is less than enticing. Pavlovich outright at -235 or by knockout at -130 seems the likely outcome. However, whenever heavyweights get in the cage, one punch from either could always end it.

UFC Welterweight Main Event

Stephen Thompson vs. Kevin Holland
Odds to Win: Thompson +122 | Holland -156
How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -145 | Submission +650 | Decision +155
Will the fight go the distance? Yes +166 | No -220

Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson is one of the most talented strikers to enter a UFC cage, but at 39 years old, can he keep up with Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland? Thompson is fresh off back-to-back losses to Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad. Holland is also coming off a loss, but it was to the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev.

Trailblazer will be three inches taller and has a six-inch reach advantage. The two land a similar volume of significant strikes per minute at 3.9 and 3.85, also absorbing a similar amount at 2.81 and 2.38. Grappling should be an insignificant factor, as both prefer to stand and strike.

If Thompson were at his peak, this fight would be much more intriguing, but he has slowly declined over the past five years. I’m expecting Holland to overwhelm Thompson, but I’m not confident enough to take him by knockout or submission. This fight could also be the last time we see Thompson in the cage. Take Holland outright at -156.